Likelihood of Development Resources

The following resources can help you better understand Likelihood of Development in Housing Element site analysis. Likelihood of development is loosely defined as the probability of the actual development of a proposed site based on the rate of development of sites proposed during the previous Housing Element cycle. This is not to be confused with ‘likelihood of discontinuation,’ a higher percentage chance relating to non-vacant sites which might be proposed by jurisdictions. The current use for the proposed site must be shown to have a realistic enough possibility to be discontinued if it is to be included.

• UCLA Lewis Center paper, ‘What Gets Built on Sites That Cities "Make Available" for Housing?’

• Terner Center, ‘Creating a Stronger Housing Element: The Example of Los Angeles'

• Building Blocks: Analysis of Sites & Zoning

• Site Inventory Guidebook

  • Realistic Capacity: “The capacity calculation must be adjusted to reflect the realistic potential for residential development capacity on the sites in the inventory. Specifically, when the site has the potential to be developed with nonresidential uses, requires redevelopment, or has an overlay zone allowing the underlying zoning to be utilized for residential units, these capacity limits must be reflected in the housing element.” (page 20 of the Site Inventory Guidebook)

• HEAT Sheet

• Abundant Housing LA, “An Under-the-Radar Win for Housing in California”

Likelihood of Development is an important part of the Housing Element process since jurisdictions must make a full-fledged effort to find and propose sites that have a real chance of being developed based on previous years. By determining unit numbers by their chance of actually arising, hopefully cities will build and entitle beyond just their set target instead of doing the bare minimum. This is another tool in keeping cities accountable.